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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, February 27, 2004

Oscar may hold some surprises

Hollywood crossed its fingers as Oscar voters made their final selections for cinema's top honors, with The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King looking set to reign over Sunday's glittering ceremony. But film experts think a couple of surprises are possible.


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Hollywood crossed its fingers as Oscar voters made their final selections for cinema's top honors, with The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King looking set to reign over Sunday's glittering ceremony. But film experts think a couple of surprises are possible.

"The hobbits and the elves of The Lord of the Rings have nothing to fear from any other films this year," Oscar expert and awards oracle Tom O'Neil said.

The final episode of Peter Jackson's daring fantasy trilogy goes into Sunday's awards armed with 11 nominations, more than any other picture, including best director for Jackson who appears to be a shoo-in for the honor.

"The Oscar triumph of the hobbits and of Jackson is arriving," O'Neil said.

The biggest chance of an upset is expected in the best actor category which Tom O'Neil calls a "cliffhanger in which three bad boy actors �� Sean Penn, Bill Murray and Johnny Depp �� are neck-and-neck and in which one of them will probably win by a nose."

Going into the homestretch of the Oscar race, Penn was the favorite for his performance as ex-con anguished by the murder of his teenage daughter in Clint Eastwood's powerful crime thriller Mystic River.

But O'Neil said Penn made a huge tactical error when he failed to attend the Golden Globe awards in January and gave Hollywood the impression that he was not interested in competing for filmdom's top prize.

Meanwhile, the British film industry's equivalent of the Oscar honored Murray for his performance as a lonely middle-aged actor adrift in Tokyo in Lost in Translation and the U.S. Screen Actors Guild unexpectedly gave its top award to Depp, who plays a flamboyant buccaneer in Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl.

Robert Osborne, author of 75 Years of the Oscars: The Official History of the Academy Awards, says that his choice for this year's upset is, like O'Neil's, the best actor's race.

"There is so much talk about Johnny Depp right now. Bill Murray gave a comedy performance which Oscar voters often don't go for and Penn is disliked in part because... people get upset over his politics �� he did go to Iraq," Osborne said.

The experts think that there is also a chance for an upset in one other acting category �� best supporting actress in which three-time Oscar nominee Renee Zellweger has been the favorite for her role in Cold Mountain.

Although she won the Screen Actors Guild award for best supporting actress Feb. 22, many critics think she could lose to either Shohreh Aghdashloo for her work as the wife of an Iranian colonel in House of Sand and Fog or to popular independent film star Patricia Clarkson, the mother in Pieces of April.

South African-born Charlize Theron is expected to win the best actress award for her performance as a prostitute serial killer in Monster, with her strongest competition expected to come from Diane Keaton who plays a woman in her 50s finding love in Something's Gotta Give.

But Time magazine film critic Richard Schickel thinks Theron has the edge. "She's going to win the Hilary Swank Memorial Oscar," referring to the Academy Award that the then unknown Swank won for an equally bold performance in Boys Don't Cry.

"(Theron's) performance is very good even if the movie is not a bowl of Jello," Schickel said.

Theron was rendered virtually unrecognizable by prosthetics and 30 extra pounds of weight that turned her into jowly and harsh-faced serial killer Aileen Wuornos.

The golden statuettes that make and break movie careers will be handed out at Hollywood's Kodak Theater on Sunday in a ceremony attended by a galaxy of stars and industry moguls. It will be watched by up to 1 billion television viewers across the globe.




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