Bush, Kerry face long, fierce campaign

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, March 05, 2004

Bush, Kerry face long, fierce campaign

US President George W. Bush launched a long-awaited TV advertising blitz in swing states, while presumptive Democratic presidential nominee rushed to raise more money to fight back.

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US President George W. Bush launched a long-awaited TV advertising blitz in swing states, while presumptive Democratic presidential nominee rushed to raise more money to fight back.

The two major parties in the United States have formally engaged in the battle for the White House immediately after Democrats essentially ended their primary race.

Judged by any standard, the campaign lying ahead for Bush and John Kerry will be a long, close and thus bitter one.

Democrats energized while Republicans well prepared

Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, clinched his nomination bya coast-to-coast sweep in the 10-state primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, less than two months after he scored the first of his back-to-back victories in Iowa in January.

The fact that the Democratic nominating fight was settled earlier than any in modern history was partly attributed to a tight primary calendar, under which the results of early primarieshave a huge impact on the following ones.

More importantly, however, the early settlement of the Democratic presidential primary race reflected the common desire of Democratic voters to avoid a long intra-party bloodletting so the party's candidate can save resources to focus on Bush.

Democrats might love former Vermont governor Howard Dean for his clear-cut anti-war position. They might love North Carolina Senator John Edwards for his charisma and his conservative attitude toward free trade. But they voted for Kerry because they believe he has the best chance to oust Bush.

His campaign once slump, Kerry enjoyed an astounding last-minute recovery in the primary season. When voters went to pollingstations or caucuses, their assessment of the candidates' "electability," or the ability to get elected in the general election, prevailed over their value or faith.

A four-term senator, Kerry is more experienced than Dean and first-term senator Edwards on national or foreign affairs. A decorated Vietnam War hero, he is able to stand up against Bush onnational security, an issue which voters traditionally have more trust on Republicans. Almost all polls showed that voters chose Kerry because of his electability.

While Democrats have energized and united behind their choice of nominee, the Bush campaign has enjoyed the luxury of a primary season without any internal fight and accumulated a record campaign treasury of 143 million dollars, an advantage which makesit almost an impossible mission for Kerry to overcome.

Theme of campaign on the moving

The early conclusion of the Democratic primary race makes for an unusually long general election. The theme for the eight-month campaign is still uncertain as issues over national security, economy or jobs keep evolving.

The Bush campaign had initially planned to make national security issue the core theme of the campaign. But the strategy, which might work well if an anti-war candidate was the nominee, faces adjustment as Kerry stepped on the stage.

The contrast was apparent: Kerry fought in Vietnam but Bush never went there; Kerry is a decorated hero but Bush face charges that he went missing for some time during his service in the National Guard in the Vietnam war era.

Just as demonstrated by the up and down Dean experienced in thecampaign as the Iraq situation evolved, the issue of Iraq would bea double-edged sword for both Bush and Kerry.

If the United States transfers power successfully to an interimIraqi government and the violence subsides, then Bush will get an advantage over Kerry; But if the chaos there continues and the death toll of American soldiers keeps rising, then Bush will fall into a trap he set for himself by launching the war in the very beginning.

Economy is certainly one of the most critical issues in this campaign. Former president Bill Clinton successfully highlighted the economic insecurities to build his case for change in his 1992campaign against incumbent George Bush, who enjoyed a high mark over foreign affairs.

But economy is in a very unfamiliar place this year. Gross domestic product has jumped 7 percent since Bush took office. Companies have generally rebounded from the 2001 recession and consumer spending remains high.

The job market, however, failed to keep pace with the economic growth. More than two million jobs have lost since Bush took office, and recent data showed that the job market remains weak even if the economy is expanding.

So far, both the Democrats and Republicans have exploited thesecompeting versions of reality for their advantages. Kerry has kepttalking about job loss on his campaign trail while Bush described a rosy picture of robust economic growth.

Even economists have had difficulty predicting how the economicgrowth and job market will coordinate their paces. If job market improves while economy remains strong, then Kerry will face a hardtask to build his case; if the job market keeps sluggish and economic growth can not sustain, however, Bush will have a difficult time to defend himself.

Observers here said the two campaign camps would try to choose a theme to their advantage. Since everything is evolving, however,it might take a considerate time for the real theme to be settled on. Before that, it should be no surprise if the candidates keep talking about "vision" or "value" instead of concrete issues that concern most Americans.

A close battle widely expected

Recent polls showed that Kerry would beat Bush in a hypothetical match-up today. But doubts should be cast over the credibility of the polls since they were conducted in the peak of the Democratic primary race.

It is widely expected that this year's general-election campaign is likely to be close, just like the one in 2000.

The Bush campaign began the TV ad blitz Thursday in 17 states which are predicted to be fierce battle fields in November, including Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The ads underscore the Bush strategy of portraying the president as a steady hand in turbulent times.

Meanwhile, the left-leaning organizations MoveOn. Org also launched anti-Bush ads in these states Thursday, attacking the president's economic policies.

The selective targeting by both sides mean the two campaign camps have realized that this year's election, instead of being a 50-state campaign, is likely to come down to a dozen or so states that were close in 2000.

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