The coming Thursday's parliamentary election of South Korea will be mainly a two-way competition between the pro-government Uri Party and the opposition Grand National Party (GNP), local analysts said.

Previously, most of the media, pollsters and political observers deemed the Uri Party is expected to win the race, helpedby the "impeachment effect."

In various opinion polls held in March, the Uri Party has been leading with a 45 percent level. While the GNP stood steadily in the second place with a 21 percent level.

The other political parties, such as the former ruling party the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP), the Democratic Labor Party and the United Liberal Party, are far behind the top two in the supporting rate polls.

The South Korean National Election Committee bans any opinion polls after April 2, saying they may affect the result of the election.

But things developed beyond expectation. Earlier this month, Uri Party leader Chung Dong-young said, "Voters in their 60s and 70s can rest at home on the election day, because the younger generation will decide the future of the country."

These remarks triggered furious critics among old voters despite Chung's quick apology, and the party's popularity has since shrunk some 1.5 percent a day, according to a member of the party.

Under great pressure, Chung announced his resignation as the party's chief campaigner just three days ahead the election.

In contrast, the GNP, which gave hands to the MDP to approve the impeachment bill, quickly made responses to the unfavorable situation after the impeachment.

It held a general meeting to elect a new chairperson, Park Geun-hye, the eldest daughter of former President Park Chung-hee, to re-integrate power of the party. She spent less than on month visiting voters and constituencies that traditionally support her party.

Helped by Park's high profile and kind image, the GNP's popularity rebounded to a 20 percent level from the bottom of a 14percent level at the end of March and reportedly continued rising rapidly.

On the other hand, the MDP, founded by former President Kim Dae-jung, is on the verge of quitting the main political stage.

The MDP was severely hit by the impeachment against South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, which was strenuously pushed in theparliament by itself but backfired.

It seemed that local people cannot accept the fact that their president was impeached abruptly. People's anger made the MDP's supporting rate nosedive to 3.5 percent, even lower than that for the DLP, which has no seats in the 16th National Assembly.

In the opposition-controlled 16th National Assembly, the GNP, MDP and Uri Party respectively held 145, 62 and 47 seats.

According to a recently revised election law, 299 lawmakers shall serve in the 17th National Assembly, in which 56 under a proportional representation system, the rest were to be elected directly.

Local experts also said the "generation" and the "regionalism" factors now are crucial to who will win in the race.

Regionalism has been the incurable illness of South Korean politics for the past 30 years. Voters in the Yongnam and Honam regions, the two arch rivals, used to give almost bind support fortheir native sons.

The Yongnam region which includes the North Gyeongsang Provinceand South Gyeongsang Province is located in the southeast of the country, while the Honam region which covers North Jeolla Provinceand South Jeolla Province lies in the southwest of the country.

The Yongnam region is the traditional stronghold of the GNP, while the Honam region is the base area of the MDP. Polls showed many voters in the two regions gave cold shoulders to their traditionally favored parties after the impeachment earlier.

But with the passage of time, voters in the Yongnam region gavewelcome faces again to the GNP, especially after Park attended lots of campaign events there. Reports predicted it is possible for the GNP to achieve a landslide victory of wining most of the 68 seats in the Yongnam area.

The newly formed Uri Party has no definite favorite regions, but it has high popularity in the younger generation.

According to polls conducted by Gallup, the Uri Party's supporting rate in the voters aged 20s and 30s was standing at the50 percent level. But among voters aged 60s and beyond, only 20 percent supported the party, lagging behind the GNP.

Of about 36.5 million voters eligible to cast ballots in the election, the 20s and 30s take up 47 percent, while the 50s and 60s account for 30 percent.

Usually, old people tend to vote more enthusiastically, but younger people always are "cynics" over the "dirty politics," its turning-up is crucial to election result.

In the 16th parliamentary election four year ago, only 37 percent of people in their 20s and 30s voted, compared to between 63 percent of the 40s and above. "So, it remains unforeseeable of the result," said experts.

Source: Xinhua