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Optimism over China's economy surfaces (2)

By Wang Yanlin (Shanghai Daily)

08:27, December 25, 2012

Few changes seen

Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura, said the most important message from the top leaders is that there will likely be few changes.

"Most of the news release reads very similar to what the government has been saying in the past few months," Zhang said of the conference report.

China leaders said in a statement that a "proactive" fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy stance would be maintained into the new year to sustain economic growth, bolstered primarily by domestic demand.

More consumer and business spending has become a top priority for 2013. To achieve that, China will "improve structural tax reform, expand social financing, increase appropriate loans and keep the yuan's exchange rate relatively stable," the statement said.

However, restrictive policies will be kept on the property market, it added.

"Overall, the policy stance in 2013 will likely remain loose, in reality," Zhang said. "But we should still pay close attention to inflation, to financial risks in the shadow banking sector, to the property sector and to excessive production capacity in the manufacturing sector, which may worsen under a loose policy stance."

Zhang said he thinks such a loose policy stance may be unsustainable and will have to be shifted to "neutral" or "tightening" in the second half of 2013.

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank, said "Chinese wisdom" tells us an official strategy of "no change" leaves room to wiggle if the economy doesn't behave as expected and policy tweaking is needed.

"The new leadership is guarding cautiously against many risks," Lu said.

He points to general phrases in the statement, which mentioned potential risks such as a slower worldwide growth, rising trade protectionism, stronger inflationary pressure, unsustainable growth, overcapacity, increasing production costs and financial risks.

"It is important to note that the leadership leaves a lot of room, especially in monetary policy, to maneuver in response to market changes," Lu said.

The conference report did not specify an economic growth target. That figure is expected to be announced at the National People's Congress in March.

Some economists said they expect the target to remain at 7.5 percent.

Li Jian, director of the trade research institute under the Ministry of Commerce, said the rate would be reasonable and he expects references to "rapid growth" to decrease substantially next year in high-levels meetings and in economic documents issued by the government.

【1】 【2】 【3】



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